Notes on value, dislocation, and mean reversion
Axia Research is a running record of investment theses, quick reactions to market moves, and portfolio updates — written in public, in real time.
A deep-value case that PayPal's "left for dead" narrative is overstated, its fastest-growing businesses are hidden inside a single-digit-to-low-double-digit multiple, and a buyback alone can nearly double EPS within a few years — with real external validation from a $53 billion buyout offer the board turned down.
Core CPI services came in softer than expected — a same-day reaction, not a position change.
A framework for finding margin of safety in sectors the market has temporarily given up on — and a worked example.
Putting on a small semiconductor hedge against a fully-positioned book, plus a new mean-reversion position — logged here for the record.
A sum-of-the-parts case that Intel's legacy CPU business alone is worth roughly double the stock, with a mostly-free call option on the Foundry turnaround and a national-security backstop underneath it.